5.4 – Tracking Real GDP over Time
Learning Objectives
By the end of this section, you will be able to:
- Explain recessions, depressions, peaks, and troughs
- Evaluate the importance of tracking real GDP over time
When news reports indicate that “the economy grew 1.2% in the first quarter,” the reports are referring to the percentage change in real GDP. By convention, governments report GDP growth is at an annualized rate: Whatever the calculated growth in real GDP was for the quarter, we multiply it by four when it is reported as if the economy were growing at that rate for a full year.
Figure 1. U.S. GDP, 1960-present. Real GDP in the United States in 2022 (in 2017 dollars) was about $21.8 trillion. After adjusting to remove the effects of inflation, this represents a roughly 6-fold increase in the economy’s production of goods and services since 1960, and a 20-fold increase since the start of the twentieth century. (Source: bea.gov)
Figure 1 shows the pattern of U.S. real GDP since 1900. Short term declines have regularly interrupted the generally upward long-term path of GDP. We call a significant decline in real GDP a recession. We call an especially lengthy and deep recession a depression. The severe drop in GDP that occurred during the 1930s Great Depression is clearly visible in the figure, as is the 2008–2009 Great Recession.
Real GDP is important because it is highly correlated with other measures of economic activity, like employment and unemployment. When real GDP rises, so does employment.
The most significant human problem associated with recessions (and their larger, uglier cousins, depressions) is that a slowdown in production means that firms need to lay off or fire some of their workers. Losing a job imposes painful financial and personal costs on workers, and often on their extended families as well. In addition, even those who keep their jobs are likely to find that wage raises are scanty at best—or their employers may ask them to take pay cuts.
Table 1 lists the pattern of recessions and expansions in the U.S. economy since 1900. We call the highest point of the economy, before the recession begins, the peak. Conversely, the lowest point of a recession, before a recovery begins, is the trough. Thus, a recession lasts from peak to trough, and an economic upswing runs from trough to peak. We call the economy’s movement from peak to trough and trough to peak the business cycle. It is intriguing to notice that the three longest trough-to-peak expansions of the twentieth century have happened since 1960. The most recent recession started in December 2007 and ended formally in June 2009. This was the most severe recession since the 1930s Great Depression. The ongoing expansion since the June 2009 trough was also quite long, comparatively, reaching nearly 11 years before the COVID-19 pandemic.
| Peak Prior to Contraction | Trough Prior to Expansion | Months of Contraction | Months of Expansion Since Previous Trough |
|---|---|---|---|
| June 1857 | December 1858 | 18 | 30 |
| October 1860 | June 1861 | 8 | 22 |
| April 1865 | December 1867 | 32 | 46 |
| June 1869 | December 1870 | 18 | 18 |
| October 1873 | March 1879 | 65 | 34 |
| March 1882 | May 1885 | 38 | 36 |
| March 1887 | April 1888 | 13 | 22 |
| July 1890 | May 1891 | 10 | 27 |
| January 1893 | June 1894 | 17 | 20 |
| December 1895 | June 1897 | 18 | 18 |
| June 1899 | December 1900 | 18 | 24 |
| September 1902 | August 1904 | 23 | 21 |
| May 1907 | June 1908 | 13 | 33 |
| January 1910 | January 1912 | 24 | 19 |
| January 1913 | December 1914 | 23 | 12 |
| August 1918 | March 1919 | 7 | 44 |
| January 1920 | July 1921 | 18 | 10 |
| May 1923 | July 1924 | 14 | 22 |
| October 1926 | November 1927 | 13 | 27 |
| August 1929 | March 1933 | 43 | 21 |
| May 1937 | June 1938 | 13 | 50 |
| February 1945 | October 1945 | 8 | 80 |
| November 1948 | October 1949 | 11 | 37 |
| July 1953 | May 1954 | 10 | 45 |
| August 1957 | April 1958 | 8 | 39 |
| April 1960 | February 1961 | 10 | 24 |
| December 1969 | November 1970 | 11 | 106 |
| November 1973 | March 1975 | 16 | 36 |
| January 1980 | July 1980 | 6 | 58 |
| July 1981 | November 1982 | 16 | 12 |
| July 1990 | March 1991 | 8 | 92 |
| March 2001 | November 2001 | 8 | 120 |
| December 2007 | June 2009 | 18 | 73 |
| February 2020 | April 2020 | 2 | 128 |
A private think tank, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), tracks business cycles for the U.S. economy. However, the effects of a severe recession often linger after the official ending date assigned by the NBER.
Summary
Over the long term, U.S. real GDP have increased dramatically. At the same time, GDP has not increased the same amount each year. The speeding up and slowing down of GDP growth represents the business cycle. When GDP declines significantly, a recession occurs. A longer and deeper decline is a depression. Recessions begin at the business cycle’s peak and end at the trough.
References
The National Bureau of Economic Research. “Information on Recessions and Recoveries, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, and related topics.” http://www.nber.org/cycles/main.html.
Glossary
- business cycle
- the economy’s relatively short-term movement in and out of recession
- depression
- an especially lengthy and deep decline in output
- peak
- during the business cycle, the highest point of output before a recession begins
- recession
- a significant decline in national output
- trough
- during the business cycle, the lowest point of output in a recession, before a recovery begins
a significant decline in national output
an especially lengthy and deep decline in output
during the business cycle, the highest point of output before a recession begins
during the business cycle, the lowest point of output in a recession, before a recovery begins
the economy's relatively short-term movement in and out of recession